Premier League · Matchday 3 · St. James' Park
Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction
Best picks
Newcastle or Bournemouth
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Newcastle@ 2.15
Model +1 vs market
X Draw@ 3.65
In line with the market
2 Bournemouth@ 3.15
Model −1 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Newcastle or draw71%
Draw or Bournemouth55%
Goal lines
Over 1.580%
Over 2.557%
Over 3.534%
Under: 1.5 20% · 2.5 43% · 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Newcastle | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 6th | Position | 15th |
| 4 | Points | 1 |
| 2.0 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 9th | Attack rank | 16th |
| 12th | Defence rank | 16th |
| 1578 | Elo | 1630 |
| €699m | Squad value | €541m |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 6 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Newcastle11 / 30 pts
- W
Tottenham0–2Newcastle - DNewcastle2–2Liverpool
- L
Fulham2–0Newcastle - WNewcastle3–1West Ham
- D
Nottingham1–1Newcastle - WNewcastle3–1Brighton Hove
- L
Arsenal1–0Newcastle - LNewcastle1–2Bournemouth
- L
Crystal Palace2–1Newcastle - LNewcastle1–2Sunderland
Bournemouth17 / 30 pts
- DBournemouth1–1Everton
- L
Man City2–1Bournemouth - DNottingham1–1Bournemouth
- DBournemouth1–1Man City
- WFulham0–1Bournemouth
- WBournemouth3–0Crystal Palace
- DBournemouth2–2Leeds United
- WNewcastle1–2Bournemouth
- WArsenal1–2Bournemouth
- DBournemouth2–2Man United
Premier League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Brighton Hove | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 | Man United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Ipswich Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Nottingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 |  Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Newcastle a slim edge at 45% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Newcastle: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats across the last 10. Bournemouth bring 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Newcastle, while Bournemouth collected 10/15 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 0 Newcastle wins, 5 draws, 3 for Bournemouth. Those meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both sides scoring in 6 of the 8. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 57%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 60%. No disagreement with the bookmakers here: 45% from the model, 44% implied by the odds.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our model's most likely outcome is Newcastle win, with probabilities of 45% for a Newcastle win, 26% for a draw and 29% for an Bournemouth win.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
The model puts both teams scoring at 60% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Newcastle or draw 71%, draw or Bournemouth 55%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Newcastle vs Bournemouth kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 11:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Newcastle vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is scheduled for St. James' Park, the home ground of Newcastle.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.