Newcastlevs
Liverpool
Our prediction
Liverpool winLow confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
62% Over · 38% Under
Both teams to score
65% Yes · 35% No
Team comparison
| Newcastle | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | Position | 18th |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 8th | Attack rank | 4th |
| 15th | Defence rank | 8th |
| 1564 | Elo | 1658 |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31Liverpool 4–1 Newcastle
- 2025-08-25Newcastle 2–3 Liverpool
- 2025-02-26Liverpool 2–0 Newcastle
- 2024-12-04Newcastle 3–3 Liverpool
- 2024-01-01Liverpool 4–2 Newcastle
Match analysis
Liverpool are narrow favourites at 37% — this one is far from decided.
Newcastle arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats from their last 5.
For Liverpool it reads 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats over the last 5.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 0 Newcastle wins, 1 draws, 4 for Liverpool.
Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 62%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our model's most likely outcome is Liverpool win, with probabilities of 37% for a Newcastle win, 25% for a draw and 37% for an Liverpool win.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
The model puts both teams scoring at 65% — more likely than not.
When does Newcastle vs Liverpool kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-23 · 15:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
