Premier League · Matchday 3 · Kingston Communications Stadium
Hull City vs Aston Villa prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Hull City or Aston Villa
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Hull City@ 4.00
Model +20 vs market
X Draw@ 3.60
Model +1 vs market
2 Aston Villa@ 1.88
Model −21 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Hull City or draw71%
Draw or Aston Villa56%
Goal lines
Over 1.576%
Over 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under: 1.5 24% · 2.5 50% · 3.5 72%
Both teams to score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Hull City | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd | Position | 20th |
| 6 | Points | 0 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 14th | Attack rank | 12th |
| 19th | Defence rank | 13th |
| 1517 | Elo | 1595 |
| €31m | Squad value | €465m |
| 10 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Recent form · last 10
Hull City16 / 30 pts
- W
Coventry City0–1Hull City - WHull City2–0Man United
- WHull City2–1Norwich
- L
Charlton2–1Hull City - D
Leicester City FC2–2Hull City - DHull City1–1Birmingham
- L
Sheffield Utd2–1Hull City - DHull City0–0Coventry City
- D
Oxford United FC1–1Hull City - WHull City3–1Sheffield Wednesday FC
Aston Villa14 / 30 pts
- LAston Villa0–1Arsenal
- L
Brighton Hove4–0Aston Villa - W
Man City1–2Aston Villa - WAston Villa4–2Liverpool
- D
Burnley2–2Aston Villa - LAston Villa1–2Tottenham
- L
Fulham1–0Aston Villa - WAston Villa4–3Sunderland
- D
Nottingham1–1Aston Villa - WAston Villa2–0West Ham
Premier League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Hull City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 6 |  Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Brighton Hove | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 | Man United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Ipswich Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Nottingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Coventry City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Hull City a slim edge at 44% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Hull City: 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats across the last 10. Aston Villa bring 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Hull City, while Aston Villa collected 5/15 away points in that stretch. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 50%. Our 44% on Hull City sits above the market's implied 24% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Our model's most likely outcome is Hull City win, with probabilities of 44% for a Hull City win, 27% for a draw and 29% for an Aston Villa win.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
The model puts both teams scoring at 55% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Hull City or draw 71%, draw or Aston Villa 56%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Hull City vs Aston Villa kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 16:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Hull City vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is scheduled for Kingston Communications Stadium, the home ground of Hull City.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.