Premier League · Matchday 2 · Villa Park
Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction result
How our call did
Our pre-match call was Arsenal win — the match finished Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal.✓ Hit
Pre-match picks, graded
Over 1.5 goals
✗ MissDraw or Arsenal
✓ HitBTTS: Yes
✗ MissEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Draw or Arsenal74%
Either side wins73%
Aston Villa or draw53%
Goal lines
Over 1.576%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Under: 1.5 24% · 2.5 49% · 3.5 71%
Both teams to score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%actual 0–1
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Aston Villa | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 20th | Position | 2nd |
| 0 | Points | 6 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 2.0 |
| 12th | Attack rank | 4th |
| 13th | Defence rank | 1st |
| 1595 | Elo | 1799 |
| €465m | Squad value | €1.28bn |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 12 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Aston Villa14 / 30 pts
- L
Brighton Hove4–0Aston Villa - W
Man City1–2Aston Villa - WAston Villa4–2Liverpool
- D
Burnley2–2Aston Villa - LAston Villa1–2Tottenham
- L
Fulham1–0Aston Villa - WAston Villa4–3Sunderland
- D
Nottingham1–1Aston Villa - WAston Villa2–0West Ham
- L
Man United3–1Aston Villa
Arsenal22 / 30 pts
- WArsenal3–0Coventry City
- L
PSG5–4Arsenal - W
Crystal Palace1–2Arsenal - WArsenal1–0Burnley
- WWest Ham0–1Arsenal
- WArsenal1–0Atlético Madrid
- WArsenal3–0Fulham
- DAtlético Madrid1–1Arsenal
- WArsenal1–0Newcastle
- LMan City2–1Arsenal
Premier League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Brighton Hove | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 | Man United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Ipswich Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Nottingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Coventry City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Pre-match model verdict
A close call: Arsenal edge it at 47%, with plenty of draw risk at 27%. Recent form for Aston Villa: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Arsenal bring 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 4 for Aston Villa, while Arsenal collected 7/15 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 3 Aston Villa wins, 1 draws, 6 for Arsenal. Those meetings averaged 3.1 goals, with both sides scoring in 6 of the 10. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 51%.