Chelseavs
Brighton Hove
Our prediction
Chelsea winLow confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
54% Over · 46% Under
Both teams to score
58% Yes · 42% No
Team comparison
| Chelsea | Brighton Hove | |
|---|---|---|
| 20th | Position | 15th |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 10th | Attack rank | 12th |
| 12th | Defence rank | 10th |
| 1568 | Elo | 1577 |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 6 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
ChelseaLWDLL
Brighton HoveLLWLW
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-21Brighton Hove 3–0 Chelsea
- 2025-09-27Chelsea 1–3 Brighton Hove
- 2025-02-14Brighton Hove 3–0 Chelsea
- 2024-09-28Chelsea 4–2 Brighton Hove
- 2024-05-15Brighton Hove 1–2 Chelsea
Match analysis
A close call: Chelsea edge it at 43%, with plenty of draw risk at 27%.
Chelsea arrive with 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats from their last 5.
For Brighton Hove it reads 2 wins, 3 defeats over the last 5.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 2 Chelsea wins, 0 draws, 3 for Brighton Hove.
The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chelsea vs Brighton Hove?
Our model's most likely outcome is Chelsea win, with probabilities of 43% for a Chelsea win, 27% for a draw and 30% for an Brighton Hove win.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Brighton Hove?
The model puts both teams scoring at 58% — more likely than not.
When does Chelsea vs Brighton Hove kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-30 · 13:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
