Premier League · Matchday 3 · Griffin Park
Brentford vs Sunderland prediction
Best picks
Brentford or draw
Over 1.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Brentford@ 1.64
Model −10 vs market
X Draw@ 3.90
Model +3 vs market
2 Sunderland@ 5.20
Model +7 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Brentford or draw75%
Either side wins73%
Draw or Sunderland53%
Goal lines
Over 1.575%
Over 2.549%
Over 3.527%
Under: 1.5 25% · 2.5 51% · 3.5 73%
Both teams to score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Brentford | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| 5th | Position | 11th |
| 4 | Points | 3 |
| 2.0 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 11th | Attack rank | 18th |
| 9th | Defence rank | 7th |
| 1579 | Elo | 1513 |
| €488m | Squad value | €383m |
| 6 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 2
Recent form · last 10
Brentford12 / 30 pts
- D
Leeds United1–1Brentford - WBrentford3–0Tottenham
- D
Liverpool1–1Brentford - DBrentford2–2Crystal Palace
- L
Man City3–0Brentford - WBrentford3–0West Ham
- L
Man United2–1Brentford - DBrentford0–0Fulham
- DBrentford2–2Everton
- DLeeds United0–0Brentford
Sunderland17 / 30 pts
- WSunderland1–0Fulham
- L
Ipswich Town2–1Sunderland - WSunderland2–1Chelsea
- WEverton1–3Sunderland
- DSunderland0–0Man United
- D
Wolverhampton1–1Sunderland - LSunderland0–5Nottingham
- L
Aston Villa4–3Sunderland - WSunderland1–0Tottenham
- W
Newcastle1–2Sunderland
Premier League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Brighton Hove | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 | Man United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Nottingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Brentford edge it at 47%, with plenty of draw risk at 27%. Recent form for Brentford: 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats across the last 10. Sunderland bring 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Brentford, while Sunderland collected 7/15 away points in that stretch. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 49%. Our 47% on Brentford sits below the market's implied 58% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Brentford vs Sunderland?
Our model's most likely outcome is Brentford win, with probabilities of 47% for a Brentford win, 27% for a draw and 25% for an Sunderland win.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Sunderland?
The model puts both teams scoring at 53% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Brentford vs Sunderland?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Brentford or draw 75%, draw or Sunderland 53%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Brentford vs Sunderland kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Brentford vs Sunderland being played?
The match is scheduled for Griffin Park, the home ground of Brentford.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.