Best picks
Arsenal win
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Arsenal@ 1.70
Model +3 vs market
X Draw@ 4.00
In line with the market
2 Chelsea@ 4.60
Model −3 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Arsenal or draw82%
Either side wins77%
Draw or Chelsea41%
Goal lines
Over 1.579%
Over 2.555%
Over 3.533%
Under: 1.5 21% · 2.5 45% · 3.5 67%
Both teams to score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely score
1–1at 11%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Arsenal | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Position | 4th |
| 6 | Points | 6 |
| 2.0 | Goals / game | 3.5 |
| 4th | Attack rank | 8th |
| 1st | Defence rank | 14th |
| 1799 | Elo | 1587 |
| €1.28bn | Squad value | €1.17bn |
| 12 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Arsenal25 / 30 pts
- W
Aston Villa0–1Arsenal - WArsenal3–0Coventry City
- L
PSG5–4Arsenal - W
Crystal Palace1–2Arsenal - WArsenal1–0Burnley
- W
West Ham0–1Arsenal - WArsenal1–0Atlético Madrid
- WArsenal3–0Fulham
- DAtlético Madrid1–1Arsenal
- WArsenal1–0Newcastle
Chelsea10 / 30 pts
- WChelsea4–3Brighton Hove
- WFulham2–3Chelsea
- L
Sunderland2–1Chelsea - WChelsea2–1Tottenham
- D
Liverpool1–1Chelsea - LChelsea1–3Nottingham
- LBrighton Hove3–0Chelsea
- LChelsea0–1Man United
- LChelsea0–3Man City
- L
Everton3–0Chelsea
Premier League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Brighton Hove | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 | Man United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Ipswich Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Nottingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Coventry City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 59%. Recent form for Arsenal: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat across the last 10. Chelsea bring 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 5 home wins in 5 for Arsenal, while Chelsea collected 4/15 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 6 Arsenal wins, 3 draws, 1 for Chelsea. Those meetings averaged 3.0 goals, with both sides scoring in 6 of the 10. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 55%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Our model's most likely outcome is Arsenal win, with probabilities of 59% for a Arsenal win, 23% for a draw and 18% for an Chelsea win.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Chelsea?
The model puts both teams scoring at 54% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Arsenal or draw 82%, draw or Chelsea 41%, and either side to win 77%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Arsenal vs Chelsea kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 15:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Arsenal vs Chelsea being played?
The match is scheduled for Emirates Stadium, the home ground of Arsenal.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.