Premier League · Matchday 3 · Goodison Park
Everton vs Man United prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Everton or Man United
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Everton@ 3.15
Model +7 vs market
X Draw@ 3.50
Model +1 vs market
2 Man United@ 2.15
Model −8 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Everton or draw65%
Draw or Man United63%
Goal lines
Over 1.576%
Over 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under: 1.5 24% · 2.5 50% · 3.5 72%
Both teams to score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Everton | Man United | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Position | 10th |
| 4 | Points | 3 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 2.5 |
| 19th | Attack rank | 7th |
| 6th | Defence rank | 11th |
| 1545 | Elo | 1639 |
| €439m | Squad value | €723m |
| 5 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Everton10 / 30 pts
- D
Bournemouth1–1Everton - WEverton2–0Crystal Palace
- L
Tottenham1–0Everton - LEverton1–3Sunderland
- DCrystal Palace2–2Everton
- DEverton3–3Man City
- L
West Ham2–1Everton - LEverton1–2Liverpool
- D
Brentford2–2Everton - WEverton3–0Chelsea
Man United20 / 30 pts
- WMan United5–2Ipswich Town
- L
Hull City2–0Man United - W
Brighton Hove0–3Man United - WMan United3–2Nottingham
- DSunderland0–0Man United
- WMan United3–2Liverpool
- WMan United2–1Brentford
- WChelsea0–1Man United
- LMan United1–2Leeds United
- DBournemouth2–2Man United
Premier League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Hull City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 6 |  Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Brighton Hove | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 | Man United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Nottingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 |  Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 |  Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Everton edge it at 37%, with plenty of draw risk at 28%. Everton arrive with 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10. For Man United it reads 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats over the last 10. At home Everton have won 2 of their last 5; Man United have taken 8 of 15 points on their travels. The last 10 head-to-heads: 2 Everton wins, 2 draws, 6 for Man United. The fixture has produced 2.3 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 10. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 50%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 55%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 30% for Everton against our 37% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Everton vs Man United?
Our model's most likely outcome is Everton win, with probabilities of 37% for a Everton win, 28% for a draw and 35% for an Man United win.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Man United?
The model puts both teams scoring at 55% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Everton vs Man United?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Everton or draw 65%, draw or Man United 63%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Everton vs Man United kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 13:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Everton vs Man United being played?
The match is scheduled for Goodison Park, the home ground of Everton.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.