Premier League · Matchday 3 · The American Express Community Stadium
Brighton Hove vs Leeds United prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Brighton Hove or Leeds United
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Brighton Hove@ 1.95
In line with the market
X Draw@ 3.50
Model −1 vs market
2 Leeds United@ 3.80
Model +1 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Brighton Hove or draw74%
Draw or Leeds United52%
Goal lines
Over 1.578%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.531%
Under: 1.5 22% · 2.5 46% · 3.5 69%
Both teams to score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Brighton Hove | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|
| 9th | Position | 8th |
| 3 | Points | 4 |
| 3.5 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 10th | Attack rank | 5th |
| 10th | Defence rank | 3rd |
| 1586 | Elo | 1734 |
| €531m | Squad value | €361m |
| 6 | Form pts (last 5) | 8 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 6
Recent form · last 10
Brighton Hove16 / 30 pts
- L
Chelsea4–3Brighton Hove - WBrighton Hove4–0Aston Villa
- LBrighton Hove0–3Man United
- LLeeds United1–0Brighton Hove
- WBrighton Hove3–0Wolverhampton
- L
Newcastle3–1Brighton Hove - WBrighton Hove3–0Chelsea
- D
Tottenham2–2Brighton Hove - W
Burnley0–2Brighton Hove - WBrighton Hove2–1Liverpool
Leeds United19 / 30 pts
- DLeeds United1–1Brentford
- W
Nottingham0–1Leeds United - L
West Ham3–0Leeds United - WLeeds United1–0Brighton Hove
- DTottenham1–1Leeds United
- WLeeds United3–1Burnley
- D
Bournemouth2–2Leeds United - WLeeds United3–0Wolverhampton
- WMan United1–2Leeds United
- DLeeds United0–0Brentford
Premier League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Brighton Hove | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 | Man United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Ipswich Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Nottingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 |  Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Brighton Hove a slim edge at 48% in a tight matchup. Brighton Hove arrive with 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats from their last 10. For Leeds United it reads 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat over the last 10. At home Brighton Hove have won 4 of their last 5; Leeds United have taken 8 of 15 points on their travels. The last 6 head-to-heads: 2 Brighton Hove wins, 3 draws, 1 for Leeds United. The fixture has produced 1.8 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 2 of the last 6. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 57%. Model and market broadly agree on Brighton Hove (48% vs an implied 48%).
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Brighton Hove vs Leeds United?
Our model's most likely outcome is Brighton Hove win, with probabilities of 48% for a Brighton Hove win, 26% for a draw and 26% for an Leeds United win.
Will both teams score in Brighton Hove vs Leeds United?
The model puts both teams scoring at 57% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Brighton Hove vs Leeds United?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Brighton Hove or draw 74%, draw or Leeds United 52%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Brighton Hove vs Leeds United kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Brighton Hove vs Leeds United being played?
The match is scheduled for The American Express Community Stadium, the home ground of Brighton Hove.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.