Primeira Liga · Matchday 5 · Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Vitória SC vs Casa Pia prediction
Best picks
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Vitória SC win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Vitória SC@ 1.55
Model −4 vs market
X Draw@ 3.60
Model −1 vs market
2 Casa Pia@ 5.20
Model +5 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Vitória SC or draw77%
Either side wins76%
Draw or Casa Pia46%
Goal lines
Over 1.569%
Over 2.544%
Over 3.523%
Under: 1.5 31% · 2.5 56% · 3.5 77%
Both teams to score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely score
1–0at 14%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Vitória SC | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Position | 18th |
| 3 | Points | 0 |
| 0.8 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 9th | Attack rank | 18th |
| 8th | Defence rank | 17th |
| 1505 | Elo | 1398 |
| €73m | Squad value | €22m |
| 3 | Form pts (last 5) | 1 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Vitória SC10 / 30 pts
- L
Braga1–0Vitória SC - WVitória SC1–0CD Nacional
- L
Sporting CP3–2Vitória SC - LVitória SC0–1Arouca
- LCD Nacional2–0Vitória SC
- LVitória SC0–1Casa Pia
- LSporting CP5–1Vitória SC
- WVitória SC2–0Rio Ave
- W
Gil Vicente0–1Vitória SC - D
Avs Futebol Sad1–1Vitória SC
Casa Pia5 / 30 pts
- LCasa Pia0–1Moreirense
- LGil Vicente2–0Casa Pia
- LCasa Pia0–7SL Benfica
- L
Marítimo1–0Casa Pia - DCasa Pia1–1Rio Ave
- WVitória SC0–1Casa Pia
- LCasa Pia0–1Cd Tondela
- LGil Vicente2–1Casa Pia
- LCasa Pia0–1Braga
- DCasa Pia0–0Santa Clara
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 |  Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 |  Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 |  Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Vitória SC: 54% on the win. Recent form for Vitória SC: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats across the last 10. Casa Pia bring 1 win, 2 draws, 7 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 4 for Vitória SC, while Casa Pia collected 3/12 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 1 Vitória SC wins, 4 draws, 3 for Casa Pia. Those meetings averaged 0.9 goals, with both sides scoring in 1 of the 8. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 44%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?
Our model's most likely outcome is Vitória SC win, with probabilities of 54% for a Vitória SC win, 24% for a draw and 23% for an Casa Pia win.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?
The model puts both teams scoring at 46% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Vitória SC or draw 77%, draw or Casa Pia 46%, and either side to win 76%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Vitória SC vs Casa Pia kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 17:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Vitória SC vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, the home ground of Vitória SC.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.