Primeira Liga · Matchday 3 · P.D. Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense vs SL Benfica prediction
Best picks
SL Benfica win
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Draw or SL Benfica82%
Either side wins80%
Moreirense or draw38%
Goal lines
Over 1.579%
Over 2.556%
Over 3.534%
Under: 1.5 21% · 2.5 44% · 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely score
0–1at 11%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Moreirense | SL Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 11th | Position | 5th |
| 4 | Points | 7 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 3.7 |
| 15th | Attack rank | 2nd |
| 11th | Defence rank | 2nd |
| 1486 | Elo | 1856 |
| €31m | Squad value | €303m |
| 5 | Form pts (last 5) | 11 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Moreirense12 / 30 pts
- W
Casa Pia0–1Moreirense - L
Arouca4–0Moreirense - DMoreirense2–2Braga
- DMoreirense0–0Avs Futebol Sad
- L
Cd Tondela2–0Moreirense - WMoreirense3–2Amadora
- LSL Benfica4–1Moreirense
- WMoreirense1–0Estoril Praia
- D
Famalicão1–1Moreirense - LMoreirense0–1Braga
SL Benfica22 / 30 pts
- WSL Benfica2–1Estoril Praia
- WCasa Pia0–7SL Benfica
- DSL Benfica2–2Académico de Viseu
- WEstoril Praia1–3SL Benfica
- DSL Benfica2–2Braga
- DFamalicão2–2SL Benfica
- WSL Benfica4–1Moreirense
- W
Sporting CP1–2SL Benfica - WSL Benfica2–0CD Nacional
- DCasa Pia1–1SL Benfica
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 |  Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 |  Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 |  Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 |  Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
SL Benfica go in as the model's favourite with a 62% win probability. Recent form for Moreirense: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. SL Benfica bring 6 wins, 4 draws from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Moreirense, while SL Benfica collected 11/15 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 0 Moreirense wins, 3 draws, 5 for SL Benfica. Those meetings averaged 3.0 goals, with both sides scoring in 5 of the 8. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 56%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Moreirense vs SL Benfica?
Our model's most likely outcome is SL Benfica win, with probabilities of 18% for a Moreirense win, 20% for a draw and 62% for an SL Benfica win.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs SL Benfica?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Moreirense vs SL Benfica?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Moreirense or draw 38%, draw or SL Benfica 82%, and either side to win 80%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Moreirense vs SL Benfica kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-09 · 19:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Moreirense vs SL Benfica being played?
The match is scheduled for P.D. Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, the home ground of Moreirense.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.