Primeira Liga · Matchday 5 · Estádio Do Dragão
Porto vs Moreirense prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Porto win
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Porto@ 1.20
Model −10 vs market
X Draw@ 6.50
Model +4 vs market
2 Moreirense@ 15.00
Model +6 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Porto or draw88%
Either side wins81%
Draw or Moreirense31%
Goal lines
Over 1.574%
Over 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under: 1.5 26% · 2.5 50% · 3.5 72%
Both teams to score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely score
1–0at 14%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Porto | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Position | 11th |
| 12 | Points | 4 |
| 2.3 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 3rd | Attack rank | 15th |
| 1st | Defence rank | 11th |
| 1833 | Elo | 1486 |
| €418m | Squad value | €31m |
| 15 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Porto27 / 30 pts
- W
Académico de Viseu0–3Porto - WPorto2–0Arouca
- W
Rio Ave0–2Porto - WPorto2–0Alverca
- WPorto1–0Santa Clara
- L
Avs Futebol Sad3–1Porto - WPorto1–0Alverca
- W
Amadora1–2Porto - WPorto2–0Cd Tondela
- W
Estoril Praia1–3Porto
Moreirense12 / 30 pts
- W
Casa Pia0–1Moreirense - LArouca4–0Moreirense
- DMoreirense2–2Braga
- DMoreirense0–0Avs Futebol Sad
- LCd Tondela2–0Moreirense
- WMoreirense3–2Amadora
- L
SL Benfica4–1Moreirense - WMoreirense1–0Estoril Praia
- D
Famalicão1–1Moreirense - LMoreirense0–1Braga
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 |  Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 |  Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 |  CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 |  Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
Porto go in as the model's favourite with a 69% win probability. Recent form for Porto: 9 wins, 1 defeat across the last 10. Moreirense bring 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 5 home wins in 5 for Porto, while Moreirense collected 4/15 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 8 Porto wins, 0 draws, 0 for Moreirense. Those meetings averaged 3.4 goals, with both sides scoring in 3 of the 8. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 50%. At least one clean sheet looks plausible — BTTS Yes is only 42%. Our 69% on Porto sits below the market's implied 79% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Porto vs Moreirense?
Our model's most likely outcome is Porto win, with probabilities of 69% for a Porto win, 19% for a draw and 12% for an Moreirense win.
Will both teams score in Porto vs Moreirense?
The model puts both teams scoring at 42% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Porto vs Moreirense?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Porto or draw 88%, draw or Moreirense 31%, and either side to win 81%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Porto vs Moreirense kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-04 · 19:15 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Porto vs Moreirense being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Do Dragão, the home ground of Porto.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.