Portovs
Arouca
Date to be confirmed.This fixture is not going ahead at its originally scheduled time. Our prediction stays on record and will be settled once the match is played.
Our prediction
Porto winHigh confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
56% Over · 44% Under
Both teams to score
48% Yes · 52% No
Team comparison
| Porto | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Position | 1st |
| 6 | Points | 6 |
| 2.0 | Goals / game | 2.5 |
| 3rd | Attack rank | 6th |
| 1st | Defence rank | 15th |
| 1819 | Elo | 1540 |
| 12 | Form pts (last 5) | 13 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-27Porto 3–1 Arouca
- 2025-09-29Arouca 0–4 Porto
- 2025-03-01Arouca 0–2 Porto
- 2024-09-29Porto 4–0 Arouca
- 2024-02-12Arouca 3–2 Porto
Match analysis
The numbers lean firmly towards Porto: 68% on the win.
Recent form for Porto: 4 wins, 1 defeat across the last 5.
Arouca bring 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 4 Porto wins, 0 draws, 1 for Arouca.
Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 56%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Porto vs Arouca?
Our model's most likely outcome is Porto win, with probabilities of 68% for a Porto win, 18% for a draw and 14% for an Arouca win.
Will both teams score in Porto vs Arouca?
The model puts both teams scoring at 48% — less likely than not.
When does Porto vs Arouca kick off?
The match is not going ahead at its originally scheduled time. We will update this page when a new kickoff is confirmed.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
