Primeira Liga · Matchday 5 · Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Estoril Praia vs Arouca prediction
Best picks
Estoril Praia or Arouca
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins78%
Estoril Praia or draw66%
Draw or Arouca56%
Goal lines
Over 1.581%
Over 2.560%
Over 3.537%
Under: 1.5 19% · 2.5 40% · 3.5 63%
Both teams to score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely score
1–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Estoril Praia | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | Position | 3rd |
| 1 | Points | 9 |
| 0.5 | Goals / game | 1.8 |
| 6th | Attack rank | 5th |
| 18th | Defence rank | 14th |
| 1470 | Elo | 1542 |
| €55m | Squad value | €32m |
| 1 | Form pts (last 5) | 12 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Estoril Praia3 / 30 pts
- L
SL Benfica2–1Estoril Praia - LEstoril Praia0–2Rio Ave
- L
CD Nacional2–0Estoril Praia - DEstoril Praia1–1Famalicão
- LEstoril Praia1–3SL Benfica
- D
Alverca1–1Estoril Praia - D
Braga1–1Estoril Praia - LEstoril Praia0–1Famalicão
- L
Moreirense1–0Estoril Praia - LEstoril Praia1–3Porto
Arouca19 / 30 pts
- WArouca2–1Marítimo
- LPorto2–0Arouca
- WArouca4–0Moreirense
- W
Vitória SC0–1Arouca - WArouca3–1Cd Tondela
- W
Gil Vicente1–3Arouca - DArouca2–2Santa Clara
- LAlverca2–1Arouca
- WArouca1–0Amadora
- LBraga1–0Arouca
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
Estoril Praia are narrow favourites at 44% — this one is far from decided. Estoril Praia arrive with 3 draws, 7 defeats from their last 10. For Arouca it reads 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats over the last 10. At home Estoril Praia have won 0 of their last 5; Arouca have taken 6 of 15 points on their travels. The last 10 head-to-heads: 4 Estoril Praia wins, 1 draws, 5 for Arouca. The fixture has produced 3.8 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 7 of the last 10. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 60%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 61%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Estoril Praia vs Arouca?
Our model's most likely outcome is Estoril Praia win, with probabilities of 44% for a Estoril Praia win, 22% for a draw and 34% for an Arouca win.
Will both teams score in Estoril Praia vs Arouca?
The model puts both teams scoring at 61% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Estoril Praia vs Arouca?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Estoril Praia or draw 66%, draw or Arouca 56%, and either side to win 78%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Estoril Praia vs Arouca kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-07 · 19:15 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Estoril Praia vs Arouca being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, the home ground of Estoril Praia.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.