Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Braga win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins78%
Draw or Braga73%
Amadora or draw49%
Goal lines
Over 1.576%
Over 2.553%
Over 3.531%
Under: 1.5 24% · 2.5 47% · 3.5 69%
Both teams to score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely score
0–1at 11%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Amadora | Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| 8th | Position | 9th |
| 5 | Points | 4 |
| 2.3 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 12th | Attack rank | 4th |
| 16th | Defence rank | 5th |
| 1434 | Elo | 1690 |
| €26m | Squad value | €179m |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 6
Recent form · last 10
Amadora7 / 30 pts
- W
CD Nacional2–3Amadora - D
Alverca2–2Amadora - DAmadora2–2Sporting CP
- DBraga2–2Amadora
- DAmadora0–0Famalicão
- L
Moreirense3–2Amadora - LAmadora1–2Porto
- L
Arouca1–0Amadora - LAmadora0–1Sporting CP
- LCD Nacional2–0Amadora
Braga17 / 30 pts
- WBraga1–0Vitória SC
- DMoreirense2–2Braga
- DBraga2–2Amadora
- D
SL Benfica2–2Braga - DBraga1–1Estoril Praia
- L
Santa Clara2–1Braga - W
Casa Pia0–1Braga - DBraga2–2Famalicão
- WBraga1–0Arouca
- WMoreirense0–1Braga
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 |  Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 |  Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Braga: 51% on the win. Amadora arrive with 1 win, 4 draws, 5 defeats from their last 10. For Braga it reads 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 defeat over the last 10. At home Amadora have won 0 of their last 4; Braga have taken 8 of 15 points on their travels. The last 6 head-to-heads: 0 Amadora wins, 3 draws, 3 for Braga. The fixture has produced 3.7 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 4 of the last 6. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 53%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Amadora vs Braga?
Our model's most likely outcome is Braga win, with probabilities of 27% for a Amadora win, 22% for a draw and 51% for an Braga win.
Will both teams score in Amadora vs Braga?
The model puts both teams scoring at 54% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Amadora vs Braga?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Amadora or draw 49%, draw or Braga 73%, and either side to win 78%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Amadora vs Braga kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-10 · 19:15 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Amadora vs Braga being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Nacional, the home ground of Amadora.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.