Best picks
Alverca or Braga
Over 1.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Alverca@ 4.20
Model +5 vs market
X Draw@ 3.40
Model −4 vs market
2 Braga@ 1.80
Model −1 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins77%
Draw or Braga73%
Alverca or draw50%
Goal lines
Over 1.574%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Under: 1.5 26% · 2.5 49% · 3.5 71%
Both teams to score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely score
0–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Alverca | Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Position | 9th |
| 2 | Points | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 14th | Attack rank | 4th |
| 13th | Defence rank | 5th |
| 1480 | Elo | 1690 |
| €49m | Squad value | €179m |
| 2 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 2
Recent form · last 10
Alverca9 / 30 pts
- DAlverca1–1Santa Clara
- L
Sporting CP3–1Alverca - DAlverca2–2Amadora
- L
Porto2–0Alverca - L
Famalicão1–0Alverca - DAlverca1–1Estoril Praia
- LPorto1–0Alverca
- WAlverca2–1Arouca
- L
CD Nacional1–0Alverca - WAlverca3–1Casa Pia
Braga17 / 30 pts
- WBraga1–0Vitória SC
- D
Moreirense2–2Braga - DBraga2–2Amadora
- D
SL Benfica2–2Braga - DBraga1–1Estoril Praia
- LSanta Clara2–1Braga
- WCasa Pia0–1Braga
- DBraga2–2Famalicão
- WBraga1–0Arouca
- WMoreirense0–1Braga
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 |  Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 |  Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Braga a slim edge at 50% in a tight matchup. Alverca arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats from their last 10. For Braga it reads 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 defeat over the last 10. At home Alverca have won 2 of their last 5; Braga have taken 8 of 15 points on their travels. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 51%. Model and market broadly agree on Braga (50% vs an implied 51%).
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Alverca vs Braga?
Our model's most likely outcome is Braga win, with probabilities of 27% for a Alverca win, 23% for a draw and 50% for an Braga win.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Braga?
The model puts both teams scoring at 53% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Alverca vs Braga?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Alverca or draw 50%, draw or Braga 73%, and either side to win 77%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Alverca vs Braga kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 17:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Alverca vs Braga being played?
The match is scheduled for Campo Futebol Clube Alverca, the home ground of Alverca.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.