Best picks
Amadora or Famalicão
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Amadora@ 3.15
Model +3 vs market
X Draw@ 3.15
Model −3 vs market
2 Famalicão@ 2.30
In line with the market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Draw or Famalicão67%
Amadora or draw60%
Goal lines
Over 1.566%
Over 2.540%
Over 3.520%
Under: 1.5 34% · 2.5 60% · 3.5 80%
Both teams to score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely score
0–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Amadora | Famalicão | |
|---|---|---|
| 8th | Position | 14th |
| 5 | Points | 2 |
| 2.3 | Goals / game | 0.5 |
| 12th | Attack rank | 11th |
| 16th | Defence rank | 4th |
| 1434 | Elo | 1577 |
| €26m | Squad value | €100m |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 6
Recent form · last 10
Amadora7 / 30 pts
- W
CD Nacional2–3Amadora - D
Alverca2–2Amadora - DAmadora2–2Sporting CP
- D
Braga2–2Amadora - DAmadora0–0Famalicão
- L
Moreirense3–2Amadora - LAmadora1–2Porto
- L
Arouca1–0Amadora - LAmadora0–1Sporting CP
- LCD Nacional2–0Amadora
Famalicão12 / 30 pts
- DFamalicão0–0Gil Vicente
- L
Santa Clara1–0Famalicão - LFamalicão1–2Marítimo
- D
Estoril Praia1–1Famalicão - WFamalicão1–0Alverca
- DAmadora0–0Famalicão
- DFamalicão2–2SL Benfica
- WEstoril Praia0–1Famalicão
- DBraga2–2Famalicão
- DFamalicão1–1Moreirense
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 |  Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Famalicão edge it at 40%, with plenty of draw risk at 27%. Recent form for Amadora: 1 win, 4 draws, 5 defeats across the last 10. Famalicão bring 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 0 home wins in 4 for Amadora, while Famalicão collected 6/15 away points in that stretch. The last 6 head-to-heads: 2 Amadora wins, 3 draws, 1 for Famalicão. Those meetings averaged 1.5 goals, with both sides scoring in 1 of the 6. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 40%. No disagreement with the bookmakers here: 40% from the model, 41% implied by the odds.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Amadora vs Famalicão?
Our model's most likely outcome is Famalicão win, with probabilities of 33% for a Amadora win, 27% for a draw and 40% for an Famalicão win.
Will both teams score in Amadora vs Famalicão?
The model puts both teams scoring at 46% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Amadora vs Famalicão?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Amadora or draw 60%, draw or Famalicão 67%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Amadora vs Famalicão kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Amadora vs Famalicão being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Nacional, the home ground of Amadora.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.