Aroucavs
Marítimo
Date to be confirmed.This fixture is not going ahead at its originally scheduled time. Our prediction stays on record and will be settled once the match is played.
Our prediction
Arouca winLow confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
50% Over · 50% Under
Both teams to score
53% Yes · 47% No
Team comparison
| Arouca | Marítimo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Position | 3rd |
| 6 | Points | 6 |
| 2.5 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 6th | Attack rank | 8th |
| 15th | Defence rank | 8th |
| 1540 | Elo | 1417 |
| 13 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Head-to-head
- 2023-04-08Arouca 1–0 Marítimo
- 2022-10-23Marítimo 1–1 Arouca
- 2022-02-14Arouca 0–3 Marítimo
- 2021-09-13Marítimo 2–2 Arouca
Match analysis
Arouca are narrow favourites at 43% — this one is far from decided.
Recent form for Arouca: 4 wins, 1 draw across the last 5.
Marítimo bring 3 wins, 2 defeats from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The last 4 head-to-heads: 1 Arouca wins, 2 draws, 1 for Marítimo.
The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 50%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Arouca vs Marítimo?
Our model's most likely outcome is Arouca win, with probabilities of 43% for a Arouca win, 24% for a draw and 33% for an Marítimo win.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Marítimo?
The model puts both teams scoring at 53% — more likely than not.
When does Arouca vs Marítimo kick off?
The match is not going ahead at its originally scheduled time. We will update this page when a new kickoff is confirmed.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
