Primeira Liga · Matchday 5 · Estádio dos Barreiros
Marítimo vs SL Benfica prediction
Best picks
SL Benfica win
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Marítimo@ 10.50
Model +12 vs market
X Draw@ 5.50
Model +4 vs market
2 SL Benfica@ 1.27
Model −16 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins79%
Draw or SL Benfica79%
Marítimo or draw42%
Goal lines
Over 1.580%
Over 2.558%
Over 3.535%
Under: 1.5 20% · 2.5 42% · 3.5 65%
Both teams to score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely score
0–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Marítimo | SL Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Position | 5th |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 3.7 |
| 7th | Attack rank | 2nd |
| 10th | Defence rank | 2nd |
| 1412 | Elo | 1856 |
| €8m | Squad value | €303m |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 11 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 4
Recent form · last 10
Marítimo11 / 30 pts
- L
Arouca2–1Marítimo - DMarítimo2–2Académico de Viseu
- W
Famalicão1–2Marítimo - WMarítimo1–0Casa Pia
- L
Estoril Praia3–1Marítimo - WMarítimo1–0FC Vizela
- L
Sporting CP2–1Marítimo - DMarítimo2–2Rio Ave
- LMarítimo1–2Vitória SC
- LFamalicão3–2Marítimo
SL Benfica22 / 30 pts
- WSL Benfica2–1Estoril Praia
- WCasa Pia0–7SL Benfica
- DSL Benfica2–2Académico de Viseu
- WEstoril Praia1–3SL Benfica
- DSL Benfica2–2Braga
- DFamalicão2–2SL Benfica
- WSL Benfica4–1Moreirense
- WSporting CP1–2SL Benfica
- WSL Benfica2–0CD Nacional
- DCasa Pia1–1SL Benfica
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 |  Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 |  Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
SL Benfica go in as the model's favourite with a 58% win probability. Marítimo arrive with 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats from their last 10. For SL Benfica it reads 6 wins, 4 draws over the last 10. At home Marítimo have won 2 of their last 5; SL Benfica have taken 11 of 15 points on their travels. The last 4 head-to-heads: 0 Marítimo wins, 0 draws, 4 for SL Benfica. The fixture has produced 4.3 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 1 of the last 4. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 58%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 56%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 74% for SL Benfica against our 58% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Marítimo vs SL Benfica?
Our model's most likely outcome is SL Benfica win, with probabilities of 21% for a Marítimo win, 21% for a draw and 58% for an SL Benfica win.
Will both teams score in Marítimo vs SL Benfica?
The model puts both teams scoring at 56% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Marítimo vs SL Benfica?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Marítimo or draw 42%, draw or SL Benfica 79%, and either side to win 79%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Marítimo vs SL Benfica kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 17:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Marítimo vs SL Benfica being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio dos Barreiros, the home ground of Marítimo.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.