Primeira Liga · Matchday 5 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP vs CD Nacional prediction
Best picks
Sporting CP win
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Sporting CP@ 1.18
Model −4 vs market
X Draw@ 7.00
Model +1 vs market
2 CD Nacional@ 14.00
Model +3 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw90%
Either side wins86%
Draw or CD Nacional25%
Goal lines
Over 1.584%
Over 2.565%
Over 3.543%
Under: 1.5 16% · 2.5 35% · 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely score
2–0at 11%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Sporting CP | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Position | 10th |
| 10 | Points | 4 |
| 3.0 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 1st | Attack rank | 13th |
| 3rd | Defence rank | 9th |
| 1882 | Elo | 1454 |
| €485m | Squad value | €25m |
| 13 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 4
Recent form · last 10
Sporting CP21 / 30 pts
- W
Rio Ave0–4Sporting CP - WSporting CP3–1Alverca
- WSporting CP3–2Vitória SC
- D
Amadora2–2Sporting CP - WSporting CP3–0Gil Vicente
- WRio Ave1–4Sporting CP
- WSporting CP5–1Vitória SC
- DSporting CP2–2Cd Tondela
- D
Avs Futebol Sad1–1Sporting CP - LSporting CP1–2SL Benfica
CD Nacional13 / 30 pts
- LCD Nacional2–3Amadora
- LVitória SC1–0CD Nacional
- WCD Nacional2–0Estoril Praia
- D
Santa Clara2–2CD Nacional - WCD Nacional2–0Vitória SC
- LSanta Clara2–0CD Nacional
- LCD Nacional1–2Avs Futebol Sad
- WCd Tondela0–2CD Nacional
- WCD Nacional1–0Alverca
- LSL Benfica2–0CD Nacional
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 |  Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 |  Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |  Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 |  Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
Our model makes Sporting CP clear favourites at 75%. Sporting CP arrive with 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10. For CD Nacional it reads 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats over the last 10. At home Sporting CP have won 4 of their last 6; CD Nacional have taken 4 of 15 points on their travels. The last 4 head-to-heads: 4 Sporting CP wins, 0 draws, 0 for CD Nacional. The fixture has produced 4.3 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 4. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 65%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sporting CP vs CD Nacional?
Our model's most likely outcome is Sporting CP win, with probabilities of 75% for a Sporting CP win, 14% for a draw and 10% for an CD Nacional win.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs CD Nacional?
The model puts both teams scoring at 51% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Sporting CP vs CD Nacional?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Sporting CP or draw 90%, draw or CD Nacional 25%, and either side to win 86%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Sporting CP vs CD Nacional kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 19:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Sporting CP vs CD Nacional being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio José Alvalade, the home ground of Sporting CP.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.