Best picks
Sparta or Zwolle
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Sparta@ 1.95
Model −1 vs market
X Draw@ 3.80
Model +1 vs market
2 Zwolle@ 3.60
In line with the market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Sparta or draw73%
Draw or Zwolle52%
Goal lines
Over 1.580%
Over 2.556%
Over 3.534%
Under: 1.5 20% · 2.5 44% · 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Sparta | Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Position | 13th |
| 4 | Points | 3 |
| 1.8 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 16th | Attack rank | 17th |
| 11th | Defence rank | 15th |
| 1484 | Elo | 1453 |
| €39m | Squad value | €24m |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 3 |
Longer bars are better within the Eredivisie this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Sparta6 / 30 pts
Eredivisie standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  PSV | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 5 |  Go Ahead | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 |  NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 |  Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 9 |  Twente | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |  Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Sparta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 |  Telstar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Willem II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Den Haag | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 17 |  Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Model verdict
Sparta are narrow favourites at 48% — this one is far from decided. Sparta arrive with 1 win, 3 draws, 6 defeats from their last 10. For Zwolle it reads 2 wins, 1 draw, 7 defeats over the last 10. At home Sparta have won 0 of their last 5; Zwolle have taken 3 of 15 points on their travels. The last 8 head-to-heads: 2 Sparta wins, 3 draws, 3 for Zwolle. The fixture has produced 1.9 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 4 of the last 8. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 56%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 59%. Model and market broadly agree on Sparta (48% vs an implied 49%).
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sparta vs Zwolle?
Our model's most likely outcome is Sparta win, with probabilities of 48% for a Sparta win, 26% for a draw and 27% for an Zwolle win.
Will both teams score in Sparta vs Zwolle?
The model puts both teams scoring at 59% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Sparta vs Zwolle?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Sparta or draw 73%, draw or Zwolle 52%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Sparta vs Zwolle kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-04 · 18:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Sparta vs Zwolle being played?
The match is scheduled for Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, the home ground of Sparta.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.