Best picks
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
NEC win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
NEC or draw78%
Either side wins77%
Draw or Excelsior45%
Goal lines
Over 1.585%
Over 2.565%
Over 3.543%
Under: 1.5 15% · 2.5 35% · 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely score
1–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 NEC | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Eredivisie this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 6
Recent form · last 10
NEC16 / 30 pts
Eredivisie standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  PSV | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 5 |  Go Ahead | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 | Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 9 |  Twente | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |  Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |  Sparta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 |  Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 |  Telstar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Willem II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Den Haag | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 17 |  Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards NEC: 55% on the win. NEC arrive with 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10. For Excelsior it reads 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats over the last 10. At home NEC have won 1 of their last 5; Excelsior have taken 11 of 15 points on their travels. The last 6 head-to-heads: 4 NEC wins, 1 draws, 1 for Excelsior. The fixture has produced 3.7 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 2 of the last 6. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 65%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 63%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win NEC vs Excelsior?
Our model's most likely outcome is NEC win, with probabilities of 55% for a NEC win, 23% for a draw and 22% for an Excelsior win.
Will both teams score in NEC vs Excelsior?
The model puts both teams scoring at 63% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for NEC vs Excelsior?
Derived from the same model probabilities: NEC or draw 78%, draw or Excelsior 45%, and either side to win 77%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does NEC vs Excelsior kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-08 · 16:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is NEC vs Excelsior being played?
The match is scheduled for Goffertstadion, the home ground of NEC.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.