Best picks
NEC or Feyenoord
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 NEC@ 2.80
Model +6 vs market
X Draw@ 4.00
Model +1 vs market
2 Feyenoord@ 2.10
Model −7 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins76%
NEC or draw63%
Draw or Feyenoord61%
Goal lines
Over 1.587%
Over 2.567%
Over 3.545%
Under: 1.5 13% · 2.5 33% · 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely score
1–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 NEC | Feyenoord | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 11 |
Longer bars are better within the Eredivisie this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
NEC16 / 30 pts
Eredivisie standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  PSV | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 5 |  Go Ahead | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 |  Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 9 |  Twente | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |  Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |  Sparta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 |  Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 |  Telstar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Willem II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Den Haag | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 17 |  Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives NEC a slim edge at 39% in a tight matchup. Recent form for NEC: 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats across the last 10. Feyenoord bring 5 wins, 5 draws from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 1 home win in 5 for NEC, while Feyenoord collected 14/18 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 1 NEC wins, 5 draws, 4 for Feyenoord. Those meetings averaged 3.6 goals, with both sides scoring in 8 of the 10. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 67%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 68%. Our 39% on NEC sits above the market's implied 33% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win NEC vs Feyenoord?
Our model's most likely outcome is NEC win, with probabilities of 39% for a NEC win, 24% for a draw and 37% for an Feyenoord win.
Will both teams score in NEC vs Feyenoord?
The model puts both teams scoring at 68% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for NEC vs Feyenoord?
Derived from the same model probabilities: NEC or draw 63%, draw or Feyenoord 61%, and either side to win 76%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does NEC vs Feyenoord kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is NEC vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is scheduled for Goffertstadion, the home ground of NEC.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.