Best picks
Willem II or Excelsior
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Willem II@ 2.90
Model +2 vs market
X Draw@ 3.50
Model −1 vs market
2 Excelsior@ 2.30
Model −2 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Draw or Excelsior65%
Willem II or draw61%
Goal lines
Over 1.581%
Over 2.558%
Over 3.536%
Under: 1.5 19% · 2.5 42% · 3.5 64%
Both teams to score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Willem II | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Position | 8th |
| 1 | Points | 6 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 2.3 |
| 18th | Attack rank | 12th |
| 17th | Defence rank | 10th |
| 1340 | Elo | 1471 |
| €25m | Squad value | €18m |
| 2 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Eredivisie this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Recent form · last 10
Willem II3 / 30 pts
- DWillem II2–2Heerenveen
- LWillem II1–4NEC
- L
Go Ahead4–1Willem II - D
Nac Breda1–1Willem II - LWillem II1–2Zwolle
- LWillem II1–2Heracles Almelo
- DNEC1–1Willem II
- L
Sittard1–0Willem II - LWillem II1–2Ajax
- LHeerenveen3–1Willem II
Eredivisie standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  PSV | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 5 | Go Ahead | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 | Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 9 |  Twente | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |  Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |  Sparta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 |  Telstar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Willem II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Den Haag | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 17 |  Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Excelsior a slim edge at 39% in a tight matchup. Willem II arrive with 3 draws, 7 defeats from their last 10. For Excelsior it reads 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats over the last 10. At home Willem II have won 0 of their last 5; Excelsior have taken 11 of 15 points on their travels. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 58%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 62%. Model and market broadly agree on Excelsior (39% vs an implied 41%).
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Willem II vs Excelsior?
Our model's most likely outcome is Excelsior win, with probabilities of 35% for a Willem II win, 26% for a draw and 39% for an Excelsior win.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Excelsior?
The model puts both teams scoring at 62% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Willem II vs Excelsior?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Willem II or draw 61%, draw or Excelsior 65%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Willem II vs Excelsior kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Willem II vs Excelsior being played?
The match is scheduled for Koning Willem II Stadion, the home ground of Willem II.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.