Excelsiorvs
Sparta
Our prediction
Excelsior winMedium confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
53% Over · 47% Under
Both teams to score
57% Yes · 43% No
Team comparison
| Excelsior | Sparta | |
|---|---|---|
| 9th | Position | 11th |
| 3 | Points | 3 |
| 2.5 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 12th | Attack rank | 17th |
| 12th | Defence rank | 10th |
| 1462 | Elo | 1492 |
| 10 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Eredivisie this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-17Sparta 2–3 Excelsior
- 2025-09-14Excelsior 0–1 Sparta
- 2024-02-17Sparta 4–2 Excelsior
- 2023-10-01Excelsior 2–1 Sparta
- 2023-03-05Excelsior 1–4 Sparta
Match analysis
The model gives Excelsior a slim edge at 46% in a tight matchup.
Excelsior arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat from their last 5.
For Sparta it reads 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats over the last 5.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 2 Excelsior wins, 0 draws, 3 for Sparta.
The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 53%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Excelsior vs Sparta?
Our model's most likely outcome is Excelsior win, with probabilities of 46% for a Excelsior win, 27% for a draw and 27% for an Sparta win.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Sparta?
The model puts both teams scoring at 57% — more likely than not.
When does Excelsior vs Sparta kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-29 · 14:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
