Best picks
Under 3.5 goals
Roma or Atalanta
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Roma@ 1.67
Model −11 vs market
X Draw@ 3.75
Model +2 vs market
2 Atalanta@ 4.50
Model +10 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Roma or draw70%
Draw or Atalanta56%
Goal lines
Over 1.571%
Over 2.546%
Over 3.524%
Under: 1.5 29% · 2.5 54% · 3.5 76%
Both teams to score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Roma | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Position | 5th |
| 6 | Points | 6 |
| 4.0 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 2nd | Attack rank | 4th |
| 1st | Defence rank | 6th |
| 1716 | Elo | 1656 |
| €477m | Squad value | €413m |
| 15 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Serie A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Serie A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 6 |
| 2 |  Inter | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Milan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Atalanta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 |  Udinese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Como 1907 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Frosinone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 |  Lecce | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Torino | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Bologna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Parma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Monza | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 |  Venezia FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Roma edge it at 44%, with plenty of draw risk at 26%. Recent form for Roma: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat across the last 10. Atalanta bring 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 4 home wins in 5 for Roma, while Atalanta collected 8/15 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 2 Roma wins, 2 draws, 6 for Atalanta. Those meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both sides scoring in 6 of the 10. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 46%. Our 44% on Roma sits below the market's implied 55% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Roma vs Atalanta?
Our model's most likely outcome is Roma win, with probabilities of 44% for a Roma win, 26% for a draw and 30% for an Atalanta win.
Will both teams score in Roma vs Atalanta?
The model puts both teams scoring at 50% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Roma vs Atalanta?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Roma or draw 70%, draw or Atalanta 56%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Roma vs Atalanta kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Roma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is scheduled for Stadio Olimpico, the home ground of Roma.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.