How our call did
Our pre-match call was Atalanta win — the match finished Atalanta 1–0 Bologna.✓ Hit
Pre-match picks, graded
Under 3.5 goals
✓ HitAtalanta or Bologna
✓ HitBTTS: Yes
✗ MissEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Atalanta or draw74%
Draw or Bologna52%
Goal lines
Over 1.573%
Over 2.547%
Over 3.526%
Under: 1.5 27% · 2.5 53% · 3.5 74%
Both teams to score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%actual 1–0
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Atalanta | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 5th | Position | 15th |
| 6 | Points | 0 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 4th | Attack rank | 8th |
| 6th | Defence rank | 9th |
| 1656 | Elo | 1552 |
| €413m | Squad value | €251m |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 8 |
Longer bars are better within the Serie A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Atalanta15 / 30 pts
Serie A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 6 |
| 2 |  Inter | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Milan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Atalanta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 |  Udinese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Como 1907 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Frosinone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 |  Lecce | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Torino | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Bologna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Parma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Monza | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 |  Venezia FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Pre-match model verdict
The model gives Atalanta a slim edge at 48% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Atalanta: 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats across the last 10. Bologna bring 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Atalanta, while Bologna collected 9/12 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 4 Atalanta wins, 2 draws, 4 for Bologna. Those meetings averaged 1.7 goals, with both sides scoring in 3 of the 10. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 47%.