Best picks
Juventus or Milan
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Juventus@ 2.10
Model −2 vs market
X Draw@ 3.20
Model −2 vs market
2 Milan@ 3.55
Model +4 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Juventus or draw70%
Draw or Milan57%
Goal lines
Over 1.569%
Over 2.544%
Over 3.523%
Under: 1.5 31% · 2.5 56% · 3.5 77%
Both teams to score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Juventus | Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| 4th | Position | 3rd |
| 6 | Points | 6 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 2.0 |
| 5th | Attack rank | 7th |
| 2nd | Defence rank | 7th |
| 1684 | Elo | 1649 |
| €535m | Squad value | €462m |
| 10 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Serie A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Juventus21 / 30 pts
Serie A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 6 |
| 2 |  Inter | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Milan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 |  Atalanta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 |  Udinese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Como 1907 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Frosinone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 |  Lecce | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Torino | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Bologna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Parma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Monza | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 |  Venezia FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Model verdict
Juventus are narrow favourites at 43% — this one is far from decided. Recent form for Juventus: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat across the last 10. Milan bring 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Juventus, while Milan collected 9/15 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 2 Juventus wins, 6 draws, 2 for Milan. Those meetings averaged 0.8 goals, with both sides scoring in 1 of the 10. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 44%. No disagreement with the bookmakers here: 43% from the model, 44% implied by the odds.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Juventus vs Milan?
Our model's most likely outcome is Juventus win, with probabilities of 43% for a Juventus win, 27% for a draw and 30% for an Milan win.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Milan?
The model puts both teams scoring at 49% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Juventus vs Milan?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Juventus or draw 70%, draw or Milan 57%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Juventus vs Milan kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Juventus vs Milan being played?
The match is scheduled for Allianz Stadium, the home ground of Juventus.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.