Best picks
Under 3.5 goals
Bologna or Sassuolo
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Bologna@ 1.98
Model −3 vs market
X Draw@ 3.40
Model −2 vs market
2 Sassuolo@ 3.70
Model +4 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Bologna or draw70%
Draw or Sassuolo56%
Goal lines
Over 1.573%
Over 2.548%
Over 3.526%
Under: 1.5 27% · 2.5 52% · 3.5 74%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Bologna | Sassuolo | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Position | 11th |
| 0 | Points | 3 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 8th | Attack rank | 9th |
| 9th | Defence rank | 17th |
| 1552 | Elo | 1484 |
| €251m | Squad value | €196m |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 3 |
Longer bars are better within the Serie A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Bologna14 / 30 pts
Serie A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 6 |
| 2 |  Inter | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Milan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 |  Atalanta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 |  Udinese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Como 1907 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Frosinone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 |  Lecce | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Torino | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Bologna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Parma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Monza | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 |  Venezia FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Bologna edge it at 44%, with plenty of draw risk at 26%. Bologna arrive with 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10. For Sassuolo it reads 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats over the last 10. At home Bologna have won 1 of their last 5; Sassuolo have taken 1 of 15 points on their travels. The last 8 head-to-heads: 4 Bologna wins, 3 draws, 1 for Sassuolo. The fixture has produced 2.9 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 5 of the last 8. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 48%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our model's most likely outcome is Bologna win, with probabilities of 44% for a Bologna win, 26% for a draw and 30% for an Sassuolo win.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Bologna or draw 70%, draw or Sassuolo 56%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Bologna vs Sassuolo kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 16:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Bologna vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is scheduled for Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, the home ground of Bologna.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.