Best picks
Cagliari or Lecce
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Cagliari or draw71%
Draw or Lecce57%
Goal lines
Over 1.564%
Over 2.537%
Over 3.518%
Under: 1.5 36% · 2.5 63% · 3.5 82%
Both teams to score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely score
1–0at 14%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Cagliari | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Position | 13th |
| 3 | Points | 3 |
| 0.5 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 15th | Attack rank | 20th |
| 16th | Defence rank | 15th |
| 1463 | Elo | 1437 |
| €150m | Squad value | €125m |
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Serie A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 6
Recent form · last 10
Cagliari16 / 30 pts
Serie A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 6 |
| 2 |  Inter | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Milan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 |  Atalanta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 |  Udinese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Como 1907 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Frosinone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Lecce | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Torino | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Bologna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Parma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Monza | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 |  Venezia FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Cagliari a slim edge at 43% in a tight matchup. Cagliari arrive with 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats from their last 10. For Lecce it reads 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats over the last 10. At home Cagliari have won 3 of their last 5; Lecce have taken 10 of 15 points on their travels. The last 6 head-to-heads: 2 Cagliari wins, 2 draws, 2 for Lecce. The fixture has produced 2.5 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 4 of the last 6. The draw is live here at 28% — noticeably above the usual rate. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 37%. The model leans BTTS No, pricing Yes at just 43%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our model's most likely outcome is Cagliari win, with probabilities of 43% for a Cagliari win, 28% for a draw and 29% for an Lecce win.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lecce?
The model puts both teams scoring at 43% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Cagliari or draw 71%, draw or Lecce 57%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Cagliari vs Lecce kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-07 · 16:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Cagliari vs Lecce being played?
The match is scheduled for Sardegna Arena, the home ground of Cagliari.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.