Premier League · Matchday 3 · The City Ground
Nottingham vs Tottenham prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Nottingham or Tottenham
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Nottingham@ 2.45
Model +10 vs market
X Draw@ 3.35
Model −2 vs market
2 Tottenham@ 2.85
Model −7 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Nottingham or draw74%
Draw or Tottenham52%
Goal lines
Over 1.578%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.531%
Under: 1.5 22% · 2.5 46% · 3.5 69%
Both teams to score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Nottingham | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Position | 19th |
| 1 | Points | 0 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 15th | Attack rank | 17th |
| 15th | Defence rank | 20th |
| 1629 | Elo | 1449 |
| €535m | Squad value | €755m |
| 3 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Premier League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Nottingham16 / 30 pts
- D
Liverpool2–2Nottingham - LNottingham0–1Leeds United
- DNottingham1–1Bournemouth
- L
Man United3–2Nottingham - DNottingham1–1Newcastle
- W
Chelsea1–3Nottingham - W
Sunderland0–5Nottingham - WNottingham4–1Burnley
- DNottingham1–1Aston Villa
- WTottenham0–3Nottingham
Tottenham11 / 30 pts
- LTottenham0–2Newcastle
- L
Brentford3–0Tottenham - WTottenham1–0Everton
- LChelsea2–1Tottenham
- DTottenham1–1Leeds United
- WAston Villa1–2Tottenham
- W
Wolverhampton0–1Tottenham - DTottenham2–2Brighton Hove
- LSunderland1–0Tottenham
- LTottenham0–3Nottingham
Premier League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Brighton Hove | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 | Man United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Ipswich Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Nottingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 |  Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Nottingham edge it at 48%, with plenty of draw risk at 26%. Nottingham arrive with 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10. For Tottenham it reads 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats over the last 10. At home Nottingham have won 1 of their last 5; Tottenham have taken 6 of 15 points on their travels. The last 8 head-to-heads: 4 Nottingham wins, 0 draws, 4 for Tottenham. The fixture has produced 2.8 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 8. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 57%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 39% for Nottingham against our 48% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nottingham vs Tottenham?
Our model's most likely outcome is Nottingham win, with probabilities of 48% for a Nottingham win, 26% for a draw and 26% for an Tottenham win.
Will both teams score in Nottingham vs Tottenham?
The model puts both teams scoring at 57% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Nottingham vs Tottenham?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Nottingham or draw 74%, draw or Tottenham 52%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Nottingham vs Tottenham kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Nottingham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is scheduled for The City Ground, the home ground of Nottingham.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.