UEFA Champions League · Matchday 1 · Anfield
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid prediction
Best picks
Liverpool or Atlético Madrid
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins78%
Liverpool or draw71%
Draw or Atlético Madrid50%
Goal lines
Over 2.562%
Under: 2.5 38%
Both teams to score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely score
1–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Liverpool | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the UEFA Champions League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 1
Recent form · last 10
Liverpool13 / 30 pts
- DLiverpool2–2Nottingham
- D
Newcastle2–2Liverpool - DLiverpool1–1Brentford
- L
Aston Villa4–2Liverpool - DLiverpool1–1Chelsea
- L
Man United3–2Liverpool - WLiverpool3–1Crystal Palace
- W
Everton1–2Liverpool - LLiverpool0–2PSG
- WLiverpool2–0Fulham
Atlético Madrid17 / 30 pts
- W
Sevilla FC1–3Atlético Madrid - DAtlético Madrid2–2Villarreal
- WAtlético Madrid2–0Málaga
- LVillarreal5–1Atlético Madrid
- WAtlético Madrid1–0Girona
- W
Osasuna1–2Atlético Madrid - LAtlético Madrid0–1Celta
- L
Arsenal1–0Atlético Madrid - W
Valencia0–2Atlético Madrid - DAtlético Madrid1–1Arsenal
UEFA Champions League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club Brugge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  PAE AEK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  LASK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Inter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Barça | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Atlético Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | PSG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Sl. Bratislava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 |  Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 |  Sporting CP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |  Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 |  Fenerbahçe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 |  Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 |  PSV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 |  Shaktar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 |  Bayern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 |  Bodø/Glimt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Man United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 |  Sabah FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 |  Como 1907 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 |  RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 |  Slavia Praha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 |  RC Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Liverpool a slim edge at 50% in a tight matchup. Liverpool arrive with 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10. For Atlético Madrid it reads 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats over the last 10. At home Liverpool have won 2 of their last 6; Atlético Madrid have taken 9 of 15 points on their travels. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 62%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 62%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model's most likely outcome is Liverpool win, with probabilities of 50% for a Liverpool win, 22% for a draw and 29% for an Atlético Madrid win.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid?
The model puts both teams scoring at 62% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Liverpool or draw 71%, draw or Atlético Madrid 50%, and either side to win 78%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-09 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid being played?
The match is scheduled for Anfield, the home ground of Liverpool.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.