Atlético Madridvs
Villarreal
Our prediction
Atlético Madrid winMedium confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
60% Over · 40% Under
Both teams to score
60% Yes · 40% No
Team comparison
| Atlético Madrid | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 8th | Position | 5th |
| 0 | Points | 1 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 2.0 |
| 4th | Attack rank | 3rd |
| 4th | Defence rank | 8th |
| 1645 | Elo | 1644 |
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Primera Division this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Atlético MadridLWWLW
VillarrealDWLLD
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24Villarreal 5–1 Atlético Madrid
- 2025-09-13Atlético Madrid 2–0 Villarreal
- 2025-01-25Atlético Madrid 1–1 Villarreal
- 2024-08-19Villarreal 2–2 Atlético Madrid
- 2024-04-01Villarreal 1–2 Atlético Madrid
Match analysis
Atlético Madrid are narrow favourites at 50% — this one is far from decided.
Recent form for Atlético Madrid: 3 wins, 2 defeats across the last 5.
Villarreal bring 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 2 Atlético Madrid wins, 2 draws, 1 for Villarreal.
Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 60%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our model's most likely outcome is Atlético Madrid win, with probabilities of 50% for a Atlético Madrid win, 23% for a draw and 28% for an Villarreal win.
Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model puts both teams scoring at 60% — more likely than not.
When does Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-23 · 15:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
