Primera Division · Matchday 4 · San Mamés
Athletic vs Atlético Madrid prediction
Best picks
Athletic or Atlético Madrid
Under 3.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Athletic@ 3.30
Model +6 vs market
X Draw@ 3.55
Model −2 vs market
2 Atlético Madrid@ 2.34
Model −4 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid64%
Athletic or draw62%
Goal lines
Over 1.573%
Over 2.548%
Over 3.526%
Under: 1.5 27% · 2.5 52% · 3.5 74%
Both teams to score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Athletic | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 13th | Position | 3rd |
| 3 | Points | 7 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 2.3 |
| 13th | Attack rank | 4th |
| 7th | Defence rank | 4th |
| 1509 | Elo | 1661 |
| €229m | Squad value | €498m |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Primera Division this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Athletic10 / 30 pts
- W
Celta0–2Athletic - L
Barça2–0Athletic - LAthletic1–3Sevilla FC
- L
Real Madrid4–2Athletic - DAthletic1–1Celta
- L
Espanyol2–0Athletic - LAthletic0–1Valencia
- W
Alavés2–4Athletic - LAtlético Madrid3–2Athletic
- WAthletic1–0Osasuna
Atlético Madrid17 / 30 pts
- WSevilla FC1–3Atlético Madrid
- DAtlético Madrid2–2Villarreal
- WAtlético Madrid2–0Málaga
- LVillarreal5–1Atlético Madrid
- WAtlético Madrid1–0Girona
- WOsasuna1–2Atlético Madrid
- LAtlético Madrid0–1Celta
- L
Arsenal1–0Atlético Madrid - WValencia0–2Atlético Madrid
- DAtlético Madrid1–1Arsenal
Primera Division standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Alavés | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Sevilla FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 |  Real Betis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 |  Deportivo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 |  Santander | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |  Levante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Celta | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Valencia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 |  Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 19 |  Elche | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 20 | Málaga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Model verdict
Atlético Madrid are narrow favourites at 38% — this one is far from decided. Athletic arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats from their last 10. For Atlético Madrid it reads 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats over the last 10. At home Athletic have won 1 of their last 4; Atlético Madrid have taken 9 of 15 points on their travels. The last 10 head-to-heads: 3 Athletic wins, 1 draws, 6 for Atlético Madrid. The fixture has produced 1.8 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 2 of the last 10. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 48%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Athletic vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model's most likely outcome is Atlético Madrid win, with probabilities of 36% for a Athletic win, 26% for a draw and 38% for an Atlético Madrid win.
Will both teams score in Athletic vs Atlético Madrid?
The model puts both teams scoring at 53% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Athletic vs Atlético Madrid?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Athletic or draw 62%, draw or Atlético Madrid 64%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Athletic vs Atlético Madrid kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:15 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Athletic vs Atlético Madrid being played?
The match is scheduled for San Mamés, the home ground of Athletic.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.