Best picks
Heerenveen or AZ
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Heerenveen@ 3.75
Model +8 vs market
X Draw@ 4.20
Model +4 vs market
2 AZ@ 1.80
Model −12 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Draw or AZ67%
Heerenveen or draw59%
Goal lines
Over 1.582%
Over 2.559%
Over 3.536%
Under: 1.5 18% · 2.5 41% · 3.5 64%
Both teams to score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Heerenveen | AZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Form pts (last 5) | 13 |
Longer bars are better within the Eredivisie this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 10
- AZ3–0Heerenveen
- Heerenveen3–1AZ
- Heerenveen3–1AZ
- AZ9–1Heerenveen
- Heerenveen2–2AZ
- AZ3–0Heerenveen
- AZ1–1Heerenveen
- Heerenveen0–2AZ
- AZ2–1Heerenveen
- Heerenveen1–3AZ
Recent form · last 10
Heerenveen15 / 30 pts
Eredivisie standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  PSV | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 5 |  Go Ahead | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 |  NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 |  Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 9 |  Twente | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |  Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |  Sparta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 |  Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 |  Telstar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Willem II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Den Haag | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 17 |  Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Model verdict
AZ are narrow favourites at 41% — this one is far from decided. Heerenveen arrive with 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10. For AZ it reads 6 wins, 4 draws over the last 10. At home Heerenveen have won 3 of their last 5; AZ have taken 8 of 12 points on their travels. The last 10 head-to-heads: 2 Heerenveen wins, 2 draws, 6 for AZ. The fixture has produced 3.9 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 7 of the last 10. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 59%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 62%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 52% for AZ against our 41% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Heerenveen vs AZ?
Our model's most likely outcome is AZ win, with probabilities of 33% for a Heerenveen win, 26% for a draw and 41% for an AZ win.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs AZ?
The model puts both teams scoring at 62% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Heerenveen vs AZ?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Heerenveen or draw 59%, draw or AZ 67%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Heerenveen vs AZ kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 12:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Heerenveen vs AZ being played?
The match is scheduled for Abe Lenstra Stadion, the home ground of Heerenveen.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.