Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 27 · Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira
Coritiba vs Paranaense prediction
Best picks
Under 3.5 goals
Coritiba or Paranaense
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Coritiba or draw68%
Draw or Paranaense60%
Goal lines
Over 1.572%
Over 2.546%
Over 3.525%
Under: 1.5 28% · 2.5 54% · 3.5 75%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Coritiba | Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Position | 3rd |
| 37 | Points | 45 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 10th | Attack rank | 6th |
| 16th | Defence rank | 3rd |
| 1489 | Elo | 1581 |
| €43m | Squad value | €76m |
| 10 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 5
Recent form · last 10
Coritiba17 / 30 pts
- W
Clube do Remo2–3Coritiba - WCoritiba2–1Corinthians
- D
São Paulo1–1Coritiba - WCoritiba2–1Chapecoense
- LCoritiba0–1Cruzeiro
- D
Bragantino0–0Coritiba - LCoritiba1–3Palmeiras
- L
Flamengo3–0Coritiba - WCoritiba3–2Bahia
- W
Santos0–3Coritiba
Paranaense22 / 30 pts
- DParanaense3–3Fluminense
- W
Botafogo2–3Paranaense - DParanaense1–1Bragantino
- WSantos0–2Paranaense
- DCorinthians0–0Paranaense
- WParanaense2–0Internacional
- WSão Paulo1–2Paranaense
- WParanaense1–0Mirassol
- WClube do Remo1–2Paranaense
- DParanaense1–1Flamengo
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 |  Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 |  Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 |  Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 |  Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
Coritiba are narrow favourites at 40% — this one is far from decided. Coritiba arrive with 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10. For Paranaense it reads 6 wins, 4 draws over the last 10. At home Coritiba have won 3 of their last 5; Paranaense have taken 13 of 15 points on their travels. The last 5 head-to-heads: 1 Coritiba wins, 0 draws, 4 for Paranaense. The fixture has produced 2.2 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 1 of the last 5. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 46%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Coritiba vs Paranaense?
Our model's most likely outcome is Coritiba win, with probabilities of 40% for a Coritiba win, 28% for a draw and 32% for an Paranaense win.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Paranaense?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Coritiba vs Paranaense?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Coritiba or draw 68%, draw or Paranaense 60%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Coritiba vs Paranaense kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-12 · 00:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Coritiba vs Paranaense being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, the home ground of Coritiba.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.