Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Coritiba or Mirassol
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Coritiba@ 2.35
Model +5 vs market
X Draw@ 3.25
Model −2 vs market
2 Mirassol@ 3.00
Model −3 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Coritiba or draw72%
Draw or Mirassol55%
Goal lines
Over 1.575%
Over 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under: 1.5 25% · 2.5 50% · 3.5 72%
Both teams to score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Coritiba | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Position | 17th |
| 37 | Points | 25 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.1 |
| 10th | Attack rank | 8th |
| 16th | Defence rank | 13th |
| 1489 | Elo | 1528 |
| €43m | Squad value | €34m |
| 10 | Form pts (last 5) | 2 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 1
Recent form · last 10
Coritiba17 / 30 pts
- W
Clube do Remo2–3Coritiba - WCoritiba2–1Corinthians
- D
São Paulo1–1Coritiba - WCoritiba2–1Chapecoense
- LCoritiba0–1Cruzeiro
- D
Bragantino0–0Coritiba - LCoritiba1–3Palmeiras
- L
Flamengo3–0Coritiba - WCoritiba3–2Bahia
- W
Santos0–3Coritiba
Mirassol12 / 30 pts
- LFlamengo2–0Mirassol
- DMirassol1–1Palmeiras
- DSantos1–1Mirassol
- LMirassol1–5Flamengo
- LCruzeiro3–1Mirassol
- WMirassol2–1Clube do Remo
- D
Vasco da Gama1–1Mirassol - WMirassol2–1Grêmio
- L
Paranaense1–0Mirassol - WMirassol1–0Fluminense
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 |  Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 |  Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
Coritiba are narrow favourites at 45% — this one is far from decided. Recent form for Coritiba: 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats across the last 10. Mirassol bring 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Coritiba, while Mirassol collected 2/15 away points in that stretch. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 50%. Our 45% on Coritiba sits above the market's implied 40% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Our model's most likely outcome is Coritiba win, with probabilities of 45% for a Coritiba win, 26% for a draw and 28% for an Mirassol win.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Mirassol?
The model puts both teams scoring at 54% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Coritiba or draw 72%, draw or Mirassol 55%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Coritiba vs Mirassol kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Coritiba vs Mirassol being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, the home ground of Coritiba.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.