Primera Division · Matchday 4 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal vs Deportivo prediction
Best picks
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Villarreal win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Villarreal@ 1.53
Model −7 vs market
X Draw@ 4.70
In line with the market
2 Deportivo@ 7.00
Model +7 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Villarreal or draw79%
Either side wins78%
Draw or Deportivo43%
Goal lines
Over 1.581%
Over 2.559%
Over 3.537%
Under: 1.5 19% · 2.5 41% · 3.5 63%
Both teams to score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely score
1–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Villarreal | Deportivo | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Position | 8th |
| 2 | Points | 5 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.7 |
| 3rd | Attack rank | 8th |
| 10th | Defence rank | 12th |
| 1633 | Elo | 1512 |
| €357m | Squad value | €11m |
| 5 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Primera Division this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Recent form · last 10
Villarreal13 / 30 pts
- L
Alavés1–0Villarreal - D
Atlético Madrid2–2Villarreal - D
Santander2–2Villarreal - WVillarreal5–1Atlético Madrid
- L
Rayo Vallecano2–0Villarreal - LVillarreal2–3Sevilla FC
- D
Rcd Mallorca1–1Villarreal - WVillarreal5–1Levante
- WVillarreal2–1Celta
- D
Real Oviedo1–1Villarreal
Primera Division standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barça | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Alavés | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 |  Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Sevilla FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 |  Real Betis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Santander | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Levante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 |  Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Celta | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 |  Valencia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 19 |  Elche | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Villarreal: 57% on the win. Villarreal arrive with 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10. For Deportivo it reads 1 win, 2 draws over the last 3. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 59%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 57%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 65% for Villarreal against our 57% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Villarreal vs Deportivo?
Our model's most likely outcome is Villarreal win, with probabilities of 57% for a Villarreal win, 22% for a draw and 21% for an Deportivo win.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Deportivo?
The model puts both teams scoring at 57% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Villarreal vs Deportivo?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Villarreal or draw 79%, draw or Deportivo 43%, and either side to win 78%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Villarreal vs Deportivo kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Villarreal vs Deportivo being played?
The match is scheduled for Estadio de la Cerámica, the home ground of Villarreal.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.