Alavésvs
Villarreal
Our prediction
Villarreal winLow confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
55% Over · 45% Under
Both teams to score
58% Yes · 42% No
Team comparison
| Alavés | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Position | 5th |
| 3 | Points | 1 |
| 3.0 | Goals / game | 2.0 |
| 17th | Attack rank | 3rd |
| 14th | Defence rank | 8th |
| 1482 | Elo | 1644 |
| 10 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Primera Division this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
AlavésWLWWD
VillarrealDWLLD
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-13Alavés 1–1 Villarreal
- 2026-01-10Villarreal 3–1 Alavés
- 2025-03-08Alavés 1–0 Villarreal
- 2024-11-09Villarreal 3–0 Alavés
- 2024-02-10Alavés 1–1 Villarreal
Match analysis
The model gives Villarreal a slim edge at 40% in a tight matchup.
Recent form for Alavés: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat across the last 5.
Villarreal bring 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 1 Alavés wins, 2 draws, 2 for Villarreal.
Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 55%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Alavés vs Villarreal?
Our model's most likely outcome is Villarreal win, with probabilities of 36% for a Alavés win, 24% for a draw and 40% for an Villarreal win.
Will both teams score in Alavés vs Villarreal?
The model puts both teams scoring at 58% — more likely than not.
When does Alavés vs Villarreal kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-28 · 19:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
