Rayo Vallecanovs
Alavés
Our prediction
Rayo Vallecano winMedium confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
40% Over · 60% Under
Both teams to score
45% Yes · 55% No
Team comparison
| Rayo Vallecano | Alavés | |
|---|---|---|
| 18th | Position | 1st |
| 0 | Points | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 3.0 |
| 19th | Attack rank | 17th |
| 5th | Defence rank | 14th |
| 1529 | Elo | 1482 |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Primera Division this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Rayo VallecanoLWWDD
AlavésWLWWD
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23Alavés 1–2 Rayo Vallecano
- 2025-10-26Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Alavés
- 2025-03-29Alavés 0–2 Rayo Vallecano
- 2024-10-26Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Alavés
- 2024-03-10Alavés 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
Match analysis
The model gives Rayo Vallecano a slim edge at 46% in a tight matchup.
Rayo Vallecano arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat from their last 5.
For Alavés it reads 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat over the last 5.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 4 Rayo Vallecano wins, 0 draws, 1 for Alavés.
A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 40%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?
Our model's most likely outcome is Rayo Vallecano win, with probabilities of 46% for a Rayo Vallecano win, 27% for a draw and 27% for an Alavés win.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?
The model puts both teams scoring at 45% — less likely than not.
When does Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-20 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
