How our call did
Our pre-match call was Lille win — the match finished Toulouse 0–1 Lille.✓ Hit
Pre-match picks, graded
Under 3.5 goals
✓ HitToulouse or Lille
✓ HitBTTS: Yes
✗ MissEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Draw or Lille67%
Toulouse or draw62%
Goal lines
Over 1.572%
Over 2.546%
Over 3.524%
Under: 1.5 28% · 2.5 54% · 3.5 76%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely score
1–1at 14%actual 0–1
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Toulouse | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| 16th | Position | 1st |
| 1 | Points | 7 |
| 0.7 | Goals / game | 1.7 |
| 13th | Attack rank | 8th |
| 7th | Defence rank | 1st |
| 1516 | Elo | 1660 |
| €155m | Squad value | €278m |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 8 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Toulouse12 / 30 pts
- D
Brest2–2Toulouse - LToulouse0–2Olympique Lyon
- D
FC Nantes0–0Toulouse - WToulouse2–1Olympique Lyon
- W
Strasbourg1–2Toulouse - DToulouse2–2Monaco
- L
RC Lens3–2Toulouse - LToulouse0–4Lille
- L
PSG3–1Toulouse - WToulouse1–0Lorient
Ligue 1 standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 |  Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 |  Troyes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | RC Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Marseille | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  Angers SCO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Brest | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | PSG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Le Mans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Lorient | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Le Havre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 |  Nice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Pre-match model verdict
A close call: Lille edge it at 38%, with plenty of draw risk at 28%. Recent form for Toulouse: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Lille bring 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Toulouse, while Lille collected 15/15 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 1 Toulouse wins, 1 draws, 6 for Lille. Those meetings averaged 3.0 goals, with both sides scoring in 6 of the 8. Worth noting the stalemate risk: the model has the draw at 28%. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 46%.