Best picks
Marseille or Paris FC
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Marseille@ 1.73
Model −6 vs market
X Draw@ 4.00
Model +1 vs market
2 Paris FC@ 4.50
Model +5 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins75%
Marseille or draw74%
Draw or Paris FC51%
Goal lines
Over 1.580%
Over 2.557%
Over 3.535%
Under: 1.5 20% · 2.5 43% · 3.5 65%
Both teams to score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Marseille | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 8th | Position | 3rd |
| 3 | Points | 4 |
| 2.0 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 2nd | Attack rank | 10th |
| 6th | Defence rank | 5th |
| 1618 | Elo | 1555 |
| €484m | Squad value | €122m |
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 2
Recent form · last 10
Ligue 1 standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 |  Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Olympique Lyon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 |  Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 |  Troyes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 |  RC Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Marseille | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  Angers SCO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Strasbourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Brest | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 |  PSG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Le Mans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 |  Lorient | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Le Havre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 |  Nice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
Marseille are narrow favourites at 49% — this one is far from decided. Recent form for Marseille: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats across the last 10. Paris FC bring 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Marseille, while Paris FC collected 5/12 away points in that stretch. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 57%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 59%. Our 49% on Marseille sits below the market's implied 55% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Marseille vs Paris FC?
Our model's most likely outcome is Marseille win, with probabilities of 49% for a Marseille win, 25% for a draw and 26% for an Paris FC win.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Paris FC?
The model puts both teams scoring at 59% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Marseille vs Paris FC?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Marseille or draw 74%, draw or Paris FC 51%, and either side to win 75%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Marseille vs Paris FC kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Marseille vs Paris FC being played?
The match is scheduled for Orange Vélodrome, the home ground of Marseille.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.