Monacovs
Marseille
Our prediction
Monaco winLow confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
66% Over · 34% Under
Both teams to score
67% Yes · 33% No
Team comparison
| Monaco | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| 16th | Position | 1st |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 3rd | Attack rank | 2nd |
| 12th | Defence rank | 7th |
| 1611 | Elo | 1616 |
| 5 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05Monaco 2–1 Marseille
- 2025-12-14Marseille 1–0 Monaco
- 2025-04-12Monaco 3–0 Marseille
- 2024-12-01Marseille 2–1 Monaco
- 2024-01-27Marseille 2–2 Monaco
Match analysis
The model gives Monaco a slim edge at 43% in a tight matchup.
Recent form for Monaco: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats across the last 5.
Marseille bring 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 2 Monaco wins, 1 draws, 2 for Marseille.
Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 66%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Monaco vs Marseille?
Our model's most likely outcome is Monaco win, with probabilities of 43% for a Monaco win, 23% for a draw and 34% for an Marseille win.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Marseille?
The model puts both teams scoring at 67% — more likely than not.
When does Monaco vs Marseille kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-30 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
