Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Troyes or Strasbourg
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Troyes@ 2.95
Model +7 vs market
X Draw@ 3.30
Model −2 vs market
2 Strasbourg@ 2.30
Model −6 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Troyes or draw65%
Draw or Strasbourg61%
Goal lines
Over 1.578%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.532%
Under: 1.5 22% · 2.5 46% · 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Troyes | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| 6th | Position | 10th |
| 4 | Points | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 14th | Attack rank | 7th |
| 8th | Defence rank | 11th |
| 1362 | Elo | 1596 |
| 6 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 4
Recent form · last 10
Troyes7 / 30 pts
- W
Lorient1–2Troyes - DTroyes0–0Paris FC
- DTroyes1–1Lille
- L
Angers SCO2–1Troyes - DTroyes1–1Strasbourg
- L
Stade Rennais4–0Troyes - LTroyes1–3PSG
- LTroyes0–1Nice
- D
FC Nantes2–2Troyes - L
Marseille3–1Troyes
Strasbourg19 / 30 pts
Ligue 1 standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 |  Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Olympique Lyon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | Troyes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 |  RC Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Marseille | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Angers SCO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Brest | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | PSG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Le Mans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Lorient | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Le Havre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Nice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
Troyes are narrow favourites at 39% — this one is far from decided. Recent form for Troyes: 1 win, 4 draws, 5 defeats across the last 10. Strasbourg bring 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 0 home wins in 5 for Troyes, while Strasbourg collected 10/15 away points in that stretch. The last 4 head-to-heads: 1 Troyes wins, 3 draws, 0 for Strasbourg. Those meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both sides scoring in 4 of the 4. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 58%. Our 39% on Troyes sits above the market's implied 31% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Our model's most likely outcome is Troyes win, with probabilities of 39% for a Troyes win, 27% for a draw and 35% for an Strasbourg win.
Will both teams score in Troyes vs Strasbourg?
The model puts both teams scoring at 58% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Troyes or draw 65%, draw or Strasbourg 61%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Troyes vs Strasbourg kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 13:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Troyes vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is scheduled for Stade de l'Aube, the home ground of Troyes.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.