Toulousevs
Olympique Lyon
Our prediction
Toulouse winLow confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
53% Over · 47% Under
Both teams to score
57% Yes · 43% No
Team comparison
| Toulouse | Olympique Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 11th | Position | 12th |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 13th | Attack rank | 6th |
| 6th | Defence rank | 4th |
| 1537 | Elo | 1623 |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
ToulouseDWWDL
Olympique LyonLLWWW
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10Toulouse 2–1 Olympique Lyon
- 2025-10-05Olympique Lyon 1–2 Toulouse
- 2025-01-18Olympique Lyon 0–0 Toulouse
- 2024-09-29Toulouse 1–2 Olympique Lyon
- 2024-03-15Toulouse 2–3 Olympique Lyon
Match analysis
The model gives Toulouse a slim edge at 37% in a tight matchup.
Recent form for Toulouse: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat across the last 5.
Olympique Lyon bring 3 wins, 2 defeats from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 2 Toulouse wins, 1 draws, 2 for Olympique Lyon.
The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 53%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Toulouse vs Olympique Lyon?
Our model's most likely outcome is Toulouse win, with probabilities of 37% for a Toulouse win, 26% for a draw and 36% for an Olympique Lyon win.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Olympique Lyon?
The model puts both teams scoring at 57% — more likely than not.
When does Toulouse vs Olympique Lyon kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-22 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
