Lillevs
PSG
Our prediction
PSG winLow confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
52% Over · 48% Under
Both teams to score
56% Yes · 44% No
Team comparison
| Lille | PSG | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Position | 17th |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 8th | Attack rank | 1st |
| 2nd | Defence rank | 1st |
| 1642 | Elo | 1801 |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-16PSG 3–0 Lille
- 2025-10-05Lille 1–1 PSG
- 2025-03-01PSG 4–1 Lille
- 2024-09-01Lille 1–3 PSG
- 2024-02-10PSG 3–1 Lille
Match analysis
A close call: PSG edge it at 43%, with plenty of draw risk at 26%.
Recent form for Lille: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat across the last 5.
PSG bring 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 0 Lille wins, 1 draws, 4 for PSG.
The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 52%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lille vs PSG?
Our model's most likely outcome is PSG win, with probabilities of 30% for a Lille win, 26% for a draw and 43% for an PSG win.
Will both teams score in Lille vs PSG?
The model puts both teams scoring at 56% — more likely than not.
When does Lille vs PSG kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-28 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
