Best picks
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
PSG win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 PSG@ 1.38
Model −9 vs market
X Draw@ 5.25
Model +3 vs market
2 Monaco@ 6.75
Model +6 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
PSG or draw80%
Either side wins79%
Draw or Monaco41%
Goal lines
Over 1.586%
Over 2.566%
Over 3.545%
Under: 1.5 14% · 2.5 34% · 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely score
2–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 PSG | Monaco | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Position | 2nd |
| 2 | Points | 6 |
| 2.0 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 1st | Attack rank | 3rd |
| 2nd | Defence rank | 9th |
| 1793 | Elo | 1631 |
| €1.36bn | Squad value | €369m |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
PSG19 / 30 pts
- D
Lille2–2PSG - DPSG2–2Stade Rennais
- WPSG5–4Arsenal
- L
Paris FC2–1PSG - W
RC Lens0–2PSG - WPSG1–0Brest
- D
Bayern1–1PSG - DPSG2–2Lorient
- WPSG5–4Bayern
- W
Angers SCO0–3PSG
Ligue 1 standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Olympique Lyon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 |  Troyes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | RC Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Marseille | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Angers SCO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Strasbourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Brest | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | PSG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Le Mans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Lorient | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Le Havre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 |  Nice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
Our model makes PSG clear favourites at 59%. PSG arrive with 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10. For Monaco it reads 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats over the last 10. At home PSG have won 3 of their last 5; Monaco have taken 10 of 18 points on their travels. The last 10 head-to-heads: 4 PSG wins, 3 draws, 3 for Monaco. The fixture has produced 3.8 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 8 of the last 10. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 66%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 63%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 68% for PSG against our 59% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PSG vs Monaco?
Our model's most likely outcome is PSG win, with probabilities of 59% for a PSG win, 21% for a draw and 20% for an Monaco win.
Will both teams score in PSG vs Monaco?
The model puts both teams scoring at 63% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for PSG vs Monaco?
Derived from the same model probabilities: PSG or draw 80%, draw or Monaco 41%, and either side to win 79%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does PSG vs Monaco kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-04 · 19:05 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is PSG vs Monaco being played?
The match is scheduled for Parc des Princes, the home ground of PSG.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.