Best picks
Arsenal win
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Draw or Arsenal91%
Either side wins88%
Napoli or draw21%
Goal lines
Over 2.579%
Under: 2.5 21%
Both teams to score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely score
1–3at 8%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Napoli | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 12 |
Longer bars are better within the UEFA Champions League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Recent form · last 10
Napoli17 / 30 pts
Arsenal25 / 30 pts
- W
Aston Villa0–1Arsenal - WArsenal3–0Coventry City
- L
PSG5–4Arsenal - W
Crystal Palace1–2Arsenal - WArsenal1–0Burnley
- W
West Ham0–1Arsenal - WArsenal1–0Atlético Madrid
- WArsenal3–0Fulham
- DAtlético Madrid1–1Arsenal
- WArsenal1–0Newcastle
UEFA Champions League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club Brugge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  PAE AEK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  LASK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Inter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Barça | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Atlético Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | PSG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Sl. Bratislava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 |  Sporting CP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |  Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 |  Fenerbahçe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 |  Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 |  PSV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 |  Shaktar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 |  Bayern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 |  Bodø/Glimt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 |  Man United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 |  Sabah FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 |  Como 1907 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 |  RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 |  Slavia Praha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 |  RC Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Model verdict
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 79%. Napoli arrive with 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10. For Arsenal it reads 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat over the last 10. At home Napoli have won 3 of their last 6; Arsenal have taken 10 of 15 points on their travels. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 79%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 61%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Napoli vs Arsenal?
Our model's most likely outcome is Arsenal win, with probabilities of 9% for a Napoli win, 12% for a draw and 79% for an Arsenal win.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Arsenal?
The model puts both teams scoring at 61% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Napoli vs Arsenal?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Napoli or draw 21%, draw or Arsenal 91%, and either side to win 88%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Napoli vs Arsenal kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-09 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Napoli vs Arsenal being played?
The match is scheduled for Stadio San Paolo, the home ground of Napoli.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.