Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 27 · Estádio Raimundo Sampaio
Mineiro vs Fluminense prediction
Best picks
Mineiro or Fluminense
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Mineiro or draw71%
Draw or Fluminense57%
Goal lines
Over 1.570%
Over 2.543%
Over 3.522%
Under: 1.5 30% · 2.5 57% · 3.5 78%
Both teams to score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Mineiro | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 8th | Position | 4th |
| 36 | Points | 42 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.6 |
| 11th | Attack rank | 4th |
| 7th | Defence rank | 6th |
| 1564 | Elo | 1622 |
| €89m | Squad value | €120m |
| 11 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Mineiro19 / 30 pts
- WMineiro2–1Vitória
- D
Internacional0–0Mineiro - WMineiro3–0Grêmio
- D
Clube do Remo2–2Mineiro - W
Palmeiras1–2Mineiro - DMineiro1–1Bahia
- W
Vasco da Gama0–1Mineiro - L
Corinthians1–0Mineiro - WMineiro3–1Mirassol
- DMineiro1–1Botafogo
Fluminense15 / 30 pts
- D
Paranaense3–3Fluminense - WFluminense2–1Clube do Remo
- WFluminense3–2Palmeiras
- DBotafogo1–1Fluminense
- DFluminense0–0Bahia
- DGrêmio1–1Fluminense
- DFluminense1–1Bragantino
- D
Cruzeiro1–1Fluminense - LMirassol1–0Fluminense
- WFluminense2–1São Paulo
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 |  Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
A close call: Mineiro edge it at 43%, with plenty of draw risk at 28%. Mineiro arrive with 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10. For Fluminense it reads 3 wins, 6 draws, 1 defeat over the last 10. At home Mineiro have won 3 of their last 5; Fluminense have taken 4 of 15 points on their travels. The last 10 head-to-heads: 4 Mineiro wins, 2 draws, 4 for Fluminense. The fixture has produced 3.2 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 5 of the last 10. The draw is live here at 28% — noticeably above the usual rate. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 43%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Our model's most likely outcome is Mineiro win, with probabilities of 43% for a Mineiro win, 28% for a draw and 29% for an Fluminense win.
Will both teams score in Mineiro vs Fluminense?
The model puts both teams scoring at 49% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Mineiro or draw 71%, draw or Fluminense 57%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Mineiro vs Fluminense kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-12 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Mineiro vs Fluminense being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, the home ground of Mineiro.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.