UEFA Champions League · Matchday 1 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund vs Villarreal prediction
Best picks
Dortmund win
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Dortmund or draw90%
Either side wins85%
Draw or Villarreal25%
Goal lines
Over 2.566%
Under: 2.5 34%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely score
2–0at 11%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Dortmund | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the UEFA Champions League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 1
Recent form · last 10
Dortmund21 / 30 pts
Villarreal13 / 30 pts
- L
Alavés1–0Villarreal - D
Atlético Madrid2–2Villarreal - D
Santander2–2Villarreal - WVillarreal5–1Atlético Madrid
- L
Rayo Vallecano2–0Villarreal - LVillarreal2–3Sevilla FC
- D
Rcd Mallorca1–1Villarreal - WVillarreal5–1Levante
- WVillarreal2–1Celta
- D
Real Oviedo1–1Villarreal
UEFA Champions League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club Brugge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  PAE AEK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  LASK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Inter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Barça | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Atlético Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |  PSG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Sl. Bratislava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 |  Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |  Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 |  Sporting CP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |  Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 |  Fenerbahçe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 |  Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 |  PSV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 |  Shaktar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 |  Bayern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 |  Bodø/Glimt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 |  Man United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 |  Sabah FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 |  Como 1907 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 |  RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 |  Slavia Praha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 |  RC Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Model verdict
Our model makes Dortmund clear favourites at 75%. Dortmund arrive with 7 wins, 3 defeats from their last 10. For Villarreal it reads 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats over the last 10. At home Dortmund have won 5 of their last 6; Villarreal have taken 4 of 18 points on their travels. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 66%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Dortmund vs Villarreal?
Our model's most likely outcome is Dortmund win, with probabilities of 75% for a Dortmund win, 15% for a draw and 10% for an Villarreal win.
Will both teams score in Dortmund vs Villarreal?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Dortmund vs Villarreal?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Dortmund or draw 90%, draw or Villarreal 25%, and either side to win 85%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Dortmund vs Villarreal kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-08 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Dortmund vs Villarreal being played?
The match is scheduled for Signal Iduna Park, the home ground of Dortmund.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.